Lucas Ambrosio: Projection: Bottom Pair Defence Strengths: Defensive attributes, Hockey IQ, Mobility Weaknesses: Offensive impact, Straight line speed, Active stick in defensive zone
Analysis:
Lucas Ambrosio will become an excellent defensive defenceman for whichever NHL team drafts him. The biggest thing that stands out in his game is how effective he is as a defender. He utilizes his size to his advantage, whether that be battling along the boards or in front of the net, defending the rush with his extreme reach, or sacrificing his body to block shots. His size helps him become a super-effective defender in any situation. His hockey IQ is amazing too, reading and anticipating plays with ease to disrupt passing lanes or interrupt a pass entirely, jumping up on his assignment when needed, and even joining the rush or carrying the puck himself out of his own zone when necessary. It helps that he is very agile for a guy of his size, using good edges and lower-body strength to maneuver around the ice with relative ease. His passing is also a strong suit of his, being able to break out or find open teammates in the offensive zone with crisp and clean passes.
The biggest flaw in his game for me would be his offensive impact. Apart from joining the rush or pinching in the offensive zone when appropriate, he doesn’t provide a whole bunch in terms of offence. He also needs to work on his straight-line speed, as he’s not the quickest at being able to retrieve dumps in pucks or blow by defenders if he chooses to rush the puck himself. My only schtick with his defensive game is that I wish he used his long reach more often when keeping opponents to the perimeter and taking away passing lanes. He does it occasionally, but he would be even more effective than he is now if he did it constantly.
Matthew Schaefer is, without a doubt, one of the most exciting prospects heading into the 2025 NHL Draft. At 6’2″ and 175 pounds, he combines elite skating, high-end hockey IQ, and a complete two-way game that sets him apart from virtually every defenseman in his class. Ten out of ten scouts have him pegged as the projected No. 1 overall pick, and seven of those scouts believe the gap between Schaefer and the next tier—names like James Hagens, Michael Misa, and Porter Martone—is substantial.
His trajectory this season has been electric. With 22 points in just 17 OHL games, he’s crushed last year’s totals, where he recorded 17 points in 56 games. His goal count has more than doubled—from 3 to 7 in a fraction of the games. And while a broken collarbone at the U20 World Juniors will sideline him for around three months, it has done nothing to diminish his stock. If anything, it only magnified his resilience.
I had the privilege of speaking with Matthew for about 20 minutes, and in that time, it became abundantly clear that his maturity and mindset are just as elite as his on-ice play. When I asked him who his NHL comparison would be, he answered without hesitation: “It would probably be Cale Makar, that’s pretty easy. He is a great skater, really good hockey IQ, so I like to watch bits and parts of his game and try to put it in my game.”
But what struck me even more came when I asked what the biggest lesson he’s learned during his recovery process was. He responded, “I think the biggest thing I’ve learned is when you lose someone you love you don’t really expect it and life can throw so much stuff at you. I am just happy to be here everyday… after I lost my mom it made me look at life so much differently.” That kind of perspective, from a 17-year-old, tells you everything you need to know about his character.
On the ice, Schaefer’s skating defines his game. His stride is powerful, fluid, and efficient, letting him close gaps in the defensive zone or lead rushes up the ice. His edgework is elite—smooth pivots, agile turns, and the ability to evade pressure with ease make him a nightmare for forecheckers. This blend of speed and balance makes him dominant in transition.
Offensively, he’s a weapon. Schaefer thinks the game at a high level, processes plays in real-time, and delivers pinpoint passes whether he’s springing a forward on a breakaway or navigating a tight power play setup. At the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, he showcased his dynamic skill set, dancing through defenders before setting up a crucial goal. He also owns a heavy, accurate shot that he’s not afraid to unleash from the point or in transition.
Defensively, Schaefer is as responsible as they come. He maintains strong positioning, closes gaps quickly, and uses his frame effectively to protect the front of the net. He blocks shots with conviction—a skill he credits to his older brother Johnny—and shows the kind of poise that usually belongs to veteran defensemen. He rarely overcommits, plays with a calm intensity, and brings a steadying presence in high-pressure moments.
Physically, there’s still room to grow. But even now, Schaefer holds his own in puck battles, isn’t shy about contact, and knows when to deliver a timely hit. As he continues to add muscle, he’s going to become an even bigger problem for opposing forwards.
When I asked him how he sees the role of a top-tier defenseman evolving, he said, “It could be a Cale Makar role or someone who shuts down… you’re gonna need your top line, hopefully if they are more offensive to create points and be able to shutdown, but I think you’re gonna have your top line that can do both then your second line is gonna be the shutdown line for sure.”
On the topic of his own game, Schaefer said, “I want to be a two-way defenseman, I want to be known to go out on the PK, block shots, and save the lead… Whether it’s with a minute left to protect a lead or gain one, I want to be out there. I want to be a big two-way defenseman that’s not afraid to block shots, score goals, make big hits, make big plays. Just want to be an all-around player.”
And that’s exactly what he is.
Matthew Schaefer is the full package: a franchise-caliber defenseman who can lead a blue line, quarterback a power play, shut down opposing stars, and step up in the biggest moments. His elite skill, unmatched poise, and high character make him not only the safest pick in the draft—but potentially the most impactful one. Any team that lands Schaefer in 2025 isn’t just getting a top-pairing D-man. They’re getting a cornerstone for the next decade and beyond.